Hurricanes

Hurricane Forecasting

During hurricane season, groups like the National Weather Service and the Tropical Prediction Center (formerly known as The National Hurricane Center) monitor the weather conditions in tropical areas to watch for upcoming storms. Their goal is to be aware of hurricanes and other hazards that could affect the safety and lives of people nearby.

Data collection

Weather related data is collected by several different sources, reviewed and analyzed by experts. This is an ongoing process that can lead to very early detection of upcoming storms in any region. Some of the resources used for the collection of information include:

• Satellites are sent into space and used to create digital images of tropical areas that are likely to produce hurricanes. They also provide details about the temperature of the sea, wind levels and an estimated amount of rain that will be caused by the storm.
• Radar systems serve a similar purpose to the satellites. They produce digital imagery and are used to obtain information about the storm such as the exact location of the eye of a hurricane.
• Remote controlled aircraft are flown directly into storms to take measurements from within. This process can only be performed from a close distance to a hurricane, but it offers important data that is literally collected from they eye of the storm.
• Ships and buoys are utilized to observe and measure tropical storms in areas where there are no bodies of land nearby. These are essential tools for understanding hurricanes that do not make it to dry land.

Simulations

The data is input into computers and run through simulation programs that will show details about any potential storm front. The simulations help predict the size, speed and path that an upcoming hurricane may take, which allows scientists to better understand how they might affect nearby cities. Results that show an oncoming storm will have a negative impact on people who are nearby will be passed along to news agencies so they can be broadcast to the public.

One drawback to this process is that the simulations can only be run a few times each day, so they are not able to provide continual data for constantly changing conditions. They do help to predict the outcome of any tropical storm, but do have a margin of error for this reason.

Predicting and forecasting hurricanes may not be an exact science, but it is a very useful method of monitoring storms and determining what effect they will have on the environment, and whether or not they will become dangerous to humans.